Don't write my Obituary until I am dead

I was catching up watching Rocketboom on my TiVo when I saw a New York Times story mentioned about Blogs and the death of TV. I know people on the web like to say that things are dead way before they really are. That was what the bubble was all about. There are even more real world stores near my apartment near my apartment than there was in 1999.

At the same time I read that story I see a story on Mark Cuban blog about how There is not wide enough bandwidth to the home for IP TV to replace Broadcast TV. Mark Cuban does a really good job of covering all the issues involved in the problems with IP TV. I love the way he closes his entry.

As far as the idea that everything we will ever want to watch on TV, the concept of unlimited video on demand from the internet ? The videos will be out there, stored on the net somewhere. The problem is, you wont be able to download them and watch them whenever you want. You will be able to download them when you have bandwidth available and can schedule time to do it.

Kind of like the way it works with cable and satellite TV PPV and VOD today

The one thing he does not talk about the is cost of bandwidth. The best thing about Broadcast TV is that it cost the same to distribute if 100 K people watch or if 1 Million people watch. This is not the same for IP TV.

I know that Rocketboom is a big fan of IDTV (internet definition). I think that works for some kind of content, but not for all content. There is content people will want to watch real time in HD if given the choice. I watch Rocketboom on my TV right now, but I am not sure I could put up with that look for many shows. It just is not TV quality.

I am not saying the world of TV is not going to change. I think there is a good chance that smaller TV networks are going to go away or never get started at all. I can see Rocketboom viewership grow to over a million some day. I am just saying Video Blogs are not going to put American Idol out of business anytime soon.

Just remember Rocketboom is 3-5 minutes long with one commercial at most. It is easy for a program like that to have as many viewers as the The Abrams Report. You would need 4 million viewers to have the name number of total ad impressions. That is a big difference.


Popular Posts