Guessing Game

I have been reading how everyone is guessing Steve Job's annoncement next week will be about an Apple Movie Service. For a couple years not people have been touting a download movie service as a killer app. All the time I hear how Netflix without the DVD would change the world. There is a geek elite out there that really want this.

I am not sure what will be announced, but I have a hard time seeing an Apple movie download service changing the way people watch movies. Lets say that apple starts this service on Apple only platforms. That means I would have to spend at least $600 to get a MacMini. For $600 I could get a DVD player and a few years worth of Netflix.

Second, I am not sure people are hooking computers up to their TVs. Yeah a 21 inch monitor is a big as my family's TV when I was growing up, but I am not sure people can make an iMac useful for both watch movies and using as a computer. I think the home media computer is still a rare thing. It would take a few years before something like this would really catch on.

Third, I am not sure a pricing structure could compete with renting/buying DVDs. It takes a log of bandwidth to download a movie at DVD quality. I am not sure that people will be willing to watch movies in the current 320x240 iTunes TV show resolution.

Forth, I am not sure enough people really want a movie download service. Right now Video On Demand systems are not as well used as cable companies expected. All of these systems let people play and pause the movies. Why would a movie download system have a bigger impact that Video On Demand which is already hooked up to customers TV sets.

I am not sure what Apple will announce. If they do announce a video download system people will be falling all over themselves to say this is the end of home movies as we have known it. I am just not sure Apple can be the company that can make that change.


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