iPhone getting closer

I have been unconvinced by the iPhone from before it was announced at MacWorld. I have a lot of the same concerns that John Dvorak has. I know that Dvorak has a history of being a troll. It does not mean he does not have a good point.

Apple has a great history of beating companies that are not that good to start with. The MP3 player market was not very developed when Apple got in. Of course they made quick work of that market. Now they are entering a market with companies that sell hundreds of millions of units. Nokia, Motorola, and LG have all been around the block a few times. That makes this a whole different game.

The point that Dvorak is making is that Apple will need to be able to revise the iPhone much quicker than it has revised the iPod. Even if the first iPhone is great, they will be a long way from taking over the market at that point.

In a year's time we will be able to tell if the iPhone was successful or not. Until then Dvorak has just as much of a chance of being right as all those fanboys going crazy for a phone they have not used yet.


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